DoD, IPCC, GOP – all spell out trouble

Iceberg in Ross Sea, Antarctica seen from bridge of 

icebreaker N.B. Palmer. Photo © Bruce Luyendyk

Over the last two weeks significant news has occurred on the Climate Change front. First was the report from the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) on the security threat posed by Climate Change, second was the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and last was the takeover of the U.S. Senate by the Republican party (GOP).

The DoD report analyses the U.S. military’s place in combating and adapting to climate change. The U.S. has over 7000 bases around the globe all of which need to deal with Climate Change. Defense Secretary Hagel, who as senator once signed a resolution labeling Climate Change as more or less baloney, has come around. “… we will integrate Climate Change considerations into our planning, operations and training,” he told an audience recently.

The IPCC report follows on its last one in 2007 (AR4). (For a brief note on what, who the IPCC is go here IPCC .)

What has changed since the AR4 is that the situation has worsened and the time to address Climate Change has shortened.

Antarctic Snow School, German style

Excerpt from Chapter 11. 

GANOVEX VII team practices crevasse rescue at 

Mount Cook National Park, New Zealand. 

Photo © Bruce Luyendyk 

[Scene. Bruce and Christine are part of a German Antarctic expedition. Before departure for the Antarctic the GANOVEX expedition trained for snow and ice safety at Mount Cook National Park in New Zealand.]

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“Tomorrow they’re goin’ to fly us up to the peaks to practice crevasse rescues.” Chris said she had heard their plan. Early next morning helicopters took us up to a broad snowfield perched in the highest peaks of the park. It was summer in New Zealand but sunny winter up there. The experience to fly up the faces of the cliffs to the peaks can’t be imagined – the vertical relief must have been near a mile. The pale blue glacial waters of Lake Pukaki lay below us as we ascended above the tree line, flew by the gray rock above and below – a magical elevator ride where at the top floor we landed in a brilliant white snow plateau settled between black sawtooth peaks under a clear deep blue sky.

Bradley was our instructor, a middle-aged man like me, Kiwi, soft-spoken, grayed, weathered. He pointed to a snow canyon at the base of a peak about 500 yards away from our group. “That snow scoop over there is more than fifteen stories deep, has a nice vertical cliff edge - we’ll practice crevasse rescues there,” he said. We walked across the snow over to the canyon - a deep chasm in the snow carved by incessant winds that rebounded off the peak next to it. The scoop, a couple of hundred yards across, semi-circled the peak, as a part moat - I could see its walls left and right of where I stood. They extended down for almost two hundred feet. My stomach turned over. I looked at Chris as to say “Holy shit. Is he kidding?” but I didn’t, because he wasn’t.

Bradley explained. “Three people will tie-in on a rope, walk in a line towards the edge. The lead person jumps off the cliff and the other two drop to the snow, arrest the fall, then pull the man out with a Z-Pulley¹ rescue setup. Monty and I will show you how to rig it.”

We had done this in McMurdo Survival School a couple of years ago, but not over a canyon, nothing like this. I looked around at my classmates. Most had experience, not all of them looked in top physical shape. We had a few former East Germans with us, no Antarctic expeditions on their résumé.

My turn, I tied–in at the lead of the rope, two burly Germans tied-in behind me about fifty and a hundred feet back. Had they done this before? I walked to the edge, didn’t look down and jumped off. I fell, hit the snow wall, and bounced. The rope stretched. I jerked to a stop about forty feet down. The Germans caught my fall. I looked up to see Bradley at the cliff edge - pieces of snow I had knocked loose fell past me. I gave thumbs up, acted like I was cool. He acknowledged then helped the two guys on the rope above me rig the Z-Pulley. I waited at the end of the rope. Then I felt heave stop, heave stop, and repeat. They dragged me up to the edge. I was pulled over the lip and out. I thought, that was fun, but did I need to have the crap scared out of me?

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 1 A Z-Drag or Z-Pulley is an arrangement of lines and pulleys commonly used in rescue situations. The basic arrangement provides a theoretical mechanical advantage of three. The name comes from the fact that the arrangement of lines is roughly Z shaped. Besides the mechanical advantage to pulling, it also uses only part of the total length of the rope for the block and tackle arrangement. (Wikipedia)

Antarctica, Sea Level and Santa Barbara

 

UC Santa Barbara sits atop a marine terrace bounded by sea cliffs 40 to 50 feet high.
Santa Barbara  Airport is in the background. Photo © UCSB Photo Services.

In prior posts (June 9; May 20) I presented some of the factors of predicted global sea level rise and Antarctica’s role in it. If a reader were to accept the sea level rise projections of the IPCC and other scientific authorities, they might ask, “What will be the impact on me and my family, and what can be done about this?”

Antarctic sea ice cover is increasing. Is Global Warming over?

Sea ice, Ross Sea, Antarctica, 1996. Photo © Bruce Luyendyk

Recent news items have drawn attention to Antarctic sea ice, the floating ice a meter or so thick that forms from freezing of the oceans surrounding Antarctica. Sea ice coverage is seasonal, more in the austral winter (June-September) and less in the summer (December-March), a difference of six-fold. A way to think of the scale is that the maximum extent of the sea ice about doubles the area of ice (land and sea) at the bottom of our planet. The story is that a glitch has been discovered in the estimate of the rate of change (change year over year) in the area of sea ice around Antarctica^1,2.

Underlying the news of the glitch is the prior observation that the amount of sea ice has been increasing year over year. This is opposite the observation for the Arctic Ocean where famously, sea ice area has been shrinking year over year³.

First about the glitch; this is due to a difference in the methods used in computing Antarctic sea ice cover from satellite imagery. The method was changed in 1991.

Antarctica, the Ozone Hole, and Global Warming

Mount Erebus, Ross Island, Antarctica from above the clouds.

Photo © Bruce Luyendyk

Are Global Warming and the Antarctic Ozone Hole related? Yes. Before I explain that, some basic facts. 

We live in the lower part of the atmosphere called the troposphere where Global Warming is taking place. Above the troposphere is the stratosphere where the ozone hole develops over Antarctica in Southern Hemisphere Spring. Most of us have been near the top of the troposphere – that is where transcontinental jet aircraft fly – about 11 kilometers up (35,000 feet). Another fact – ozone (a molecule of three oxygen atoms - O₃) in the stratosphere is good. It shields us from the Sun’s damaging ultraviolet radiation that causes skin cancer. Ozone in the troposphere where we live is bad – a health hazard and greenhouse gas. It is generated there by industrial activity.

So what’s happening and what’s the connection? 

Antarctica: The Problem Child of future sea level change in this century

Iceberg Ross Sea, Antarctica. Photo © Bruce Luyendyk

A few weeks ago I posted about discoveries that showed dynamic collapse of marine-based parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is underway (May 20, 2014). What I want to explore now is the current thinking of scientists on the role of Antarctica in sea level change this century.

It will come as no surprise that sea level is projected to rise from the influence of global warming. This is discussed in both the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 report (Assessment Report Five 2013) and the 2014 National Climate Assessment. What do these reports say about sea level change and Antarctica’s role – and do the reports address the dynamic collapse scenarios revealed by studies published in the last few months?

Antarctic Ice Sheets – the fuse has been lit.

Snowmobile party crossing blue ice of Balchen Glacier, 

Marie Byrd Land, West Antarctica. Photo © Bruce Luyendyk

Have the Antarctic Ice Sheets reached the Point of No Return? My last entry was an excerpt from my memoir about flying past the Point of No Return (AKA Point of Safe Return) in route from Christchurch to McMurdo Station, Antarctica. This entry is about an entirely different PNR, that where the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is lost.

Two research studies published in the last few weeks have confirmed what has been feared; the PNR for stability of the ice sheet has been passed.

The WAIS covers the subcontinent of West Antarctica in thousands of feet of ice.
About the area of Mexico, if the WAIS melted entirely sea level would rise an average three meters around the world (ten feet).