Antarctic sea ice cover is increasing. Is Global Warming over?

Sea ice, Ross Sea, Antarctica, 1996. Photo © Bruce Luyendyk

Recent news items have drawn attention to Antarctic sea ice, the floating ice a meter or so thick that forms from freezing of the oceans surrounding Antarctica. Sea ice coverage is seasonal, more in the austral winter (June-September) and less in the summer (December-March), a difference of six-fold. A way to think of the scale is that the maximum extent of the sea ice about doubles the area of ice (land and sea) at the bottom of our planet. The story is that a glitch has been discovered in the estimate of the rate of change (change year over year) in the area of sea ice around Antarctica^1,2.

Underlying the news of the glitch is the prior observation that the amount of sea ice has been increasing year over year. This is opposite the observation for the Arctic Ocean where famously, sea ice area has been shrinking year over year³.

First about the glitch; this is due to a difference in the methods used in computing Antarctic sea ice cover from satellite imagery. The method was changed in 1991.

Antarctica, the Ozone Hole, and Global Warming

Mount Erebus, Ross Island, Antarctica from above the clouds.

Photo © Bruce Luyendyk

Are Global Warming and the Antarctic Ozone Hole related? Yes. Before I explain that, some basic facts. 

We live in the lower part of the atmosphere called the troposphere where Global Warming is taking place. Above the troposphere is the stratosphere where the ozone hole develops over Antarctica in Southern Hemisphere Spring. Most of us have been near the top of the troposphere – that is where transcontinental jet aircraft fly – about 11 kilometers up (35,000 feet). Another fact – ozone (a molecule of three oxygen atoms - O₃) in the stratosphere is good. It shields us from the Sun’s damaging ultraviolet radiation that causes skin cancer. Ozone in the troposphere where we live is bad – a health hazard and greenhouse gas. It is generated there by industrial activity.

So what’s happening and what’s the connection? 

Antarctica: The Problem Child of future sea level change in this century

Iceberg Ross Sea, Antarctica. Photo © Bruce Luyendyk

A few weeks ago I posted about discoveries that showed dynamic collapse of marine-based parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is underway (May 20, 2014). What I want to explore now is the current thinking of scientists on the role of Antarctica in sea level change this century.

It will come as no surprise that sea level is projected to rise from the influence of global warming. This is discussed in both the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 report (Assessment Report Five 2013) and the 2014 National Climate Assessment. What do these reports say about sea level change and Antarctica’s role – and do the reports address the dynamic collapse scenarios revealed by studies published in the last few months?

Antarctic Ice Sheets – the fuse has been lit.

Snowmobile party crossing blue ice of Balchen Glacier, 

Marie Byrd Land, West Antarctica. Photo © Bruce Luyendyk

Have the Antarctic Ice Sheets reached the Point of No Return? My last entry was an excerpt from my memoir about flying past the Point of No Return (AKA Point of Safe Return) in route from Christchurch to McMurdo Station, Antarctica. This entry is about an entirely different PNR, that where the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is lost.

Two research studies published in the last few weeks have confirmed what has been feared; the PNR for stability of the ice sheet has been passed.

The WAIS covers the subcontinent of West Antarctica in thousands of feet of ice.
About the area of Mexico, if the WAIS melted entirely sea level would rise an average three meters around the world (ten feet).

Big Dead Place - The Man Who Loved Antarctica

Reprinted here is my Amazon review of this book…

Big Dead Place: Inside the Strange and Menacing World of Antarctica

by Nicholas Johnson

Snowmobiles in the Birchall Peaks, Marie Byrd Land, Antarctica.

Photo © Bruce Luyendyk 

Although Big Dead Place was published over nine years ago it has remained in the spotlight.

HBO planned a miniseries based on the book. The actor James Gandolfini pushed the project as a producer and was expected to star in it. Peter Gould of Breaking Bad was to do the screenplay. Gandolfini died in June 2013. Ironically, Johnson committed suicide in late 2012. Whether the project goes forward or not remains to be seen. Nevertheless, the book remains a first in memoirs of Antarctic experiences in its unflinching, no-holds-barred exposé of what it means to work in Antarctica as an underling to the institutional mission - which is to stake a virtual claim of Antarctica for the U.S.

AAAS; What We Know – about Climate Change, Antarctica

Terra Nova Bay, Northern Victoria Land, Antarctica. Photo © B. Luyendyk

The AAAS (American Association for the Advancement of Science) recently issued a web page and a short booklet (http://whatweknow.aaas.org ) addressing issues revealed in the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes) over the past few months. One of the main goals of their statement is to address the misunderstanding among the general public that there is significant debate in the Climate Science community about the basic tenets of Climate Change. This is not true. The debate that is occurring surrounds science questions on processes and predictions among other topics, not that Climate Change is happening, is a significant threat and that humans are causing it.

FORCE Team explores Ford Ranges, Marie Byrd Land, Antarctica

Hercules from VXE-6 unloads FORCE team, Marie Byrd Land,

Antarctica, December 1989. Photo © B. Luyendyk

Our work focused in on the Fosdick, Phillips and Chester Mountains in the northern Ford Ranges. Earlier geological parties had visited some locations we worked in before but many had not. We were the first to stand on many of the outcrops.

Our main focus of work was in the metamorphic massif of the Fosdick Mountains named after Admiral Byrd’s good friend Raymond Fosdick. Sledge parties from Byrd’s expeditions reached these mountains in 1934 and 1941. Geological parties explored the surrounding mountains in 1966 through 1969. New Zealand geologists visited various portions of western MBL in 1978-79 and 1987-88. The western regions of MBL including the Ford Ranges are vast, comparable to southern California in area but not climate! Because of the size of the region the earlier explorations were of a reconnaissance nature.